Behind the scenes, directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller weren't the happiest of campers when their critical darling Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse opened with $35 million in the United States in early December 2018. After all, the CGI-animated film had earned rave reviews and a coveted A+ CinemaScore from audiences, with many predicting an opening of $40 million or more.
Their angst proved futile. Thanks to exceptional word of mouth, Hollywood marketers’ most valuable commodity, the PG film took off. Embraced by families and fanboys alike, Sony’s film grossed $190 million domestically, an unprecedented multiple. Expanding its flagship superhero franchise to include both an animated series and a live-action film series was a coup for the IP, as it meant it could grow the kid and family sides of the aisle.
Paramount had more or less the same intention when it made Transformers Onethe latest installment in one of its most valuable franchises. Yet despite strong reviews and near-perfect audience ratings, the film debuted to a soft $24.6 million over the September 20-22 weekend instead of the expected $30-35 million. Worse still, it finished second behind the third weekend of Beetle Juice Beetle Juice ($25.9 million) in a surprise.
Industry insiders are not fooling themselves and admit that consumers, especially males between the ages of 18 and 24, were not so willing to embrace an animation Transformers film after seven live-action films as they had hoped. Nor did enough families show up. But they are not willing to admit defeat and say that the film could take inspiration from Spider-Verse and have long legs at the box office thanks to the same enthusiastic word of mouth.
Paul Dergarabedian, chief box office analyst at Comscore, agrees that the film, based on the popular Hasbro toy line, could potentially bounce back. “Taking a movie franchise from live-action to animation is a challenge, and while the Spider-Verse series was able to make that leap successfully, it was more of an outlier and the result of other factors playing in its favor,” Dergerabedian says. “But fantastic reviews and solid audience scores could provide the legs for Optimus to Transformers One in the next few weeks.”
Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of Roth Capital Partners is less forgiving.Transformers One had a very disappointing opening, especially considering the high scores from critics and audiences. I'm not sure what caused the low attendance. Fortunately for the industry as a whole, the 3Q box office will exceed expectations and looks set to close modestly compared to last year, compared to Wall Street estimates of being down in the single to high digits.”
According to PostTrak's flash exit polls, 40 percent of last year's opening weekend audience Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Man Universe was in the 18-24 age group. This compares with 24 percent for Transformers One. “This wasn't 'cool' enough for that audience,” says one rival studio executive. But another rival executive argues that Across the Spider-Man Universe it had the advantage of being a sequel.
Sources at Hasbro Entertainment and Paramount say Transformers One is not in financial danger at all, noting that the film's $75 million budget was split three ways between Paramount, Hasbro, and New Republic. Nor are Paramount and Hasbro abandoning future live-action films Transformers film, with longtime franchise producer Lorenzo Di Bonaventura planning a Transformers-GI Joe crossover film starring Chris Hemsworth, who lends his voice to the star in Transformers One.
Directed by former Pixar alum Josh Cooley, Transformers One is an origin story that tells how two of the most iconic Transformers, Optimus Prime and Megatron, went from best friends to bitter enemies on their home planet of Cybertron. Sources say it would have cost $300 million or more to recreate Cybertron for a live-action film. Animation has dramatically reduced that cost.
THE Transformers series began to see diminishing returns after the first four films, all directed by Michael Bay. The glory days reached their peak with the third and fourth installments, the 2011 one Transformers: The Mystery of the Moon and 2013 Transformers: Age of Extinctionboth grossing over $1.1 billion at the worldwide box office. Transformers: The Last Knightthe fifth and final title directed by Bay, grossed $602 million globally in 2017. As of late 2018, Bumblebee reached a high of $465 million, followed by $439 million for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts in 2023.
Most of the series' grosses have always been made abroad. Transformers One It has only launched in 40 percent of the international market so far, earning $14 million, with many major markets yet to open. The pic has yet to roll out in markets such as China, South Korea, Brazil, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France.
The film’s cast recently embarked on a whirlwind world tour, and Paramount hopes those efforts will pay off. Hemsworth and Brian Tyree Henry voice the two lead characters, with Keegan-Michael Key, Scarlett Johansson, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm also voicing the cast.
Nationwide, next weekend will be the turn of the film adaptation of the children's book by DreamWorks Animation and Universal The Wild Robot complicate matters in terms of competition for children and parents.
“With The Wild Robot “By trying to reach a similar audience of PG families, we’re hoping there’s enough room for both films to make their mark in this rather challenging late-September release corridor,” says Dergarabedian.
Transformers One Backers remain hopeful. “The story isn’t over,” says another insider. “After seven live-action films, animation is an unproven medium, but I think people will find the film.”