When Todd Phillips' Joker: Folie a Deux Tracking began three weeks ago, forecasts showed the Warner Bros. film would open to $70 million — $26 million less than the previous installment five years ago, but still a respectable sum. Since then, projections have dropped to between $50 million and $60 million.
Why the decline?
The polarizing, R-rated film — which world premiered at the Venice Film Festival to mixed reviews — is a genre-busting, music-infused sequel that strays from the comfort zone of the typical comic book-fueled pic fanboy. While 2019 Joker Earned comparisons to Martin Scorsese's earlier works, the sequel is a much slower-paced journey that focuses on the interior lives of its two protagonists. Critics praised the film's overall beauty, its performances, and its craftsmanship, but criticized it for its narrative. “For a film that lasts two and a quarter hours, Folie A Deux it seems narratively a bit thin and at times boring,” he wrote The Hollywood journalist chief film critic David Rooney of Venice.
All of this might be confusing for the former Jokerand help explain the decline in tracking and lighter-than-expected advance ticket sales. Regardless of the box office results, the film is expected to play a major role in the Oscar race.
Abroad, Joker 2 will open everywhere this weekend, except Japan and China, where it will launch in the coming weeks. Warner is hoping for a foreign debut in the range of $80 million to $85 million.
Joker: Foile a Deux reunites Phillips with Joaquin Phoenix, who returns to the lead role after winning the Best Actor Oscar for his performance as Arthur Fleck/Joker. Published in 2019, Joker opened to a record $96.2 million domestically, then grossed a record $1 billion at the worldwide box office, making Phillips and Phoenix heroes of Warner Bros. and earning them enough goodwill to allow them to experience the sequel. .
In fact, neither Phillips nor Phoenix were sure about making a sequel, and for a time contemplated putting on a Broadway show instead, before finally committing to the film.
The first Joker pre-market production cost only $55 million. Following its success, Phillips was given a net production budget of between $190 and $200 million for the second installment. Part of that was to bring Lady Gaga on board in a role inspired by comic book character Harley Quinn (the filmmakers hope it will appeal to female moviegoers).
Joker and Harley are known for their toxic romantic relationship in the comics, hence the title Folie a Deux referring to the medical term for an identical or similar mental disorder affecting two or more people. Much of the film consists of fantasy musical numbers featuring the pair, who meet while Arthur is in Arkham Asylum, awaiting trial for his crimes from the first film. But neither Warners nor Phillips are comfortable calling it a pure musical, given that only two characters sing, compared to a traditional musical, which usually features dozens of people performing the numbers.
The studio's marketing materials avoided highlighting the film's numerous musical sequences, just as was the case during sales Wonkaan official musical. Warner isn't alone; Paramount also did not market Bad girls as a musical.
In any case, Phillips is well aware that the sequel is unorthodox, as it does not completely follow the ending of Jokerwhich sees Arthur embrace his alter ego.
At the Los Angeles premiere on Monday, Phillips thanked the studio “for taking such a bold action,” adding that it's “not necessarily the sequel you might expect.”