Adam Kinzinger had turned down more than a dozen requests to make a documentary. Then the director of Hot Tub Time Machine within.
The Republican congressman from Illinois who famously — and largely single-handedly — turned against Donald Trump after January 6 was reluctant to appear in a film about his fading hopes of retaining his seat. But Steve Pink, the aforementioned jacuzzi auteur, wanted to get more personal than that.
“Everyone else was interested in reelection,” Kinzinger said in an interview with THR as the Toronto International Film Festival kicked off Thursday. “But when I talked to Steve and the team, they were interested in the human element: What is the cost to you and your future child?”
That conversation took place over two years ago. Now the resulting film, The Last Republicancould impact more than Kinzinger when it debuts at TIFF 2024 on Saturday. That film and Carville — a Telluride documentary about maverick consultant James Carville and his long, single-handed effort across the aisle to lure Democrats away from Joe Biden — could push the movies into the heat of the election. But how interested are studios in these stories — and if they are, would it matter in the grand scheme of the vote?
CarvilleAt least, he answered the first question. CNN Films acquired the film (subtitled “Winning Is Everything, Stupid”) just before Telluride and will air it on October 5 in an effort to sway voters. The Last Republican is still looking for a home when it hits distributors this weekend, arguing that a good way to defeat Donald Trump is to popularize the stubborn Republican who challenged him. Submarine is handling sales on the film.
“Things are grim, Trump is still on the rise, and the antics to challenge this year's election seem inevitable,” Pink said in an interview. “And here's someone who, even though I hate his politics on a good day, is actively and tangibly living his beliefs. I think that's going to resonate with people.”
Both Republican AND Carville could make a splash in the 2025 Oscar documentary race, which has seen scattered contenders but few runaway frontrunners. But the campaign’s impact could be even greater.
Pink’s film took shape when he and producer Jason Kohn, best known for directing the Andre Agassi documentary “Love Means Zero” circa TIFF 2017, made their offer to Kinzinger that his story belong on the screen. And what a story it is: a longtime Air National Guard pilot and conservative ideologue who spoke out against Trump’s role on Jan. 6 and even joined the mostly Democratic congressional committee, causing Republicans to shun him and eventually force him out of office.
There’s even a rapport between Pink, an avowed liberal, and Kinzinger; the film suggests an odd-couple affability. “At some point, this started to feel like the national Thanksgiving dinner that we haven’t been able to have since 2016,” Kohn said wryly.
The director known for the time-shifting power of chlorine and the director who once chronicled tennis betrayals might not seem like obvious choices for an inside account of Rayburn. But the former’s sense of improbability in the story and the latter’s ability to capture a maverick are at their service. Kinzinger helps his cause with a brash and often funny personality, a world away from the starch of Congress, even as he faces death threats.
To MAGA Republicans, Kinzinger is a Judas; to liberal Democrats, he’s a martyr. But while the 46-year-old courts attention (he did, after all, sign on to the film), he says he’s neither. “I’m not brave. I’m just surrounded by cowards,” Kinzinger said in the interview, echoing a theme from the film.
For distributors, the calculation on Last Republican It's a tricky question: They could buy the film now and watch its value skyrocket if Trump wins. But if Trump loses on November 5, perhaps for the last time, the film could be worth a lot less.
If a retailer were to pick up a flyer in a pre-election press release, it could serve as a model for Republican voters on how to oppose Trump, portraying a man who did so despite paying the price with his career.
“Maybe I'm delusional, but I think there's a story that can compete with Trump's. Trump's story is that Adam is disloyal, Adam is a RINO, Adam doesn't represent his party,” Kohn said. “But I don't think it's unreasonable for a conservative audience to pick up another story.” Dick Cheney reinforced that narrative on Friday when he added his name to the list of Republicans endorsing Kamala Harris.
The film’s release may also jolt viewers into remembering the attempted insurrection, described here in evocative detail, as well as the many mainstream Republicans who have quietly backtracked after initially condemning Trump. (Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is particularly shaken.)
A party’s dangerous groupthink is also the subject of Matt Tyrnauer’s “Carville,” which features scene after scene from early in the year of its subject in vintage form, grumbling, cursing and rolling his eyes with glee at what he sees as the party’s dangerous deference to an unelectable incumbent. For months, this seemed like an irrelevant message.
“It was almost a lost cause type of movie, you know, the hero was too late,” Tyrnauer recalled in an interview.
The film was actually screened for friends and family the night of the fateful Trump-Biden debate in June. The moment the lights went up in front of Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, Tyrnauer knew he had a new ending on his hands. The film now ends with a pivot to Harris.
Still, Carville now runs the opposite risk: Having been ahead for months, it could seem like old news. Carville and Tyrnauer say the film, which also revisits its subject’s famous work on Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, his unlikely marriage to Republican operative Mary Matalin, and the generally colorful Louisiana personality always beaming on airport TV, still carries a timeless message of both the shrewd game of politics and the nobility of public service.
But the principals also believe their film has a role to play as the campaign heats up. Tyrnauer said an explicit goal was to get it out before voting begins, while Carville says he sees the film’s potential to influence voter behavior in 2024.
“I don't know how many people who see it will change their vote, but maybe someone will write 100 more postcards or maybe someone will volunteer at a phone bank,” Carville said in an interview. “There are a thousand things people can do to get inspired. My hope is that this film will inspire people to get involved in elections.”
A CNN spokeswoman, Jordan Overstreet, declined to comment on the network’s goals for the film.
The history of films that try to change electoral maps is checkered. “Fahrenheit 9/11,” Michael Moore’s 2004 blockbuster documentary that tried to convince people not to vote for George W. Bush, failed in its primary goal. But other modern documentaries from “Blackfish” to “Citizenfour” have succeeded in changing consciousness, and experts say it’s not hard to conceive of it here.
“The idea that a filmmaker can make a difference in an election has been debunked: We’ve seen it fail so many times,” said veteran documentary expert Thom Powers, who runs the documentary section at TIFF. “What I think can happen is that a film hits the zeitgeist in the right way and can change the way people think. The Last Republican and other films screening at this year's festival have the potential to do just that.”
Kinzinger says he's trying to keep an eye on something even bigger.
“If you fast-forward to 2124 and the administration of President Zarkon 3 or whatever we call him, we'll probably still be having the same issues that we're having now,” Kinzinger said. “But we can't get there if the environment becomes one where people have lost faith in a system and are even turning to violence because they feel like they don't have a voice.”