The numbers are in: Domestic box office revenue for the 2024 summer is projected at $3.67 billion, down 10.4 percent from 2023, Comscore said Monday. Counterintuitive as it may seem, Hollywood studio executives and theater owners aren’t panicking.
They were experiencing very different emotions at the end of May, the official start of the summer box office. The month’s revenue was down a terrifying 29 percent from a year earlier, sparking renewed concerns that the moviegoing experience might not survive the lasting impact of the pandemic, historic Hollywood labor strikes, and competition from streaming.
It was because of the strikes that Marvel Studios and Disney were unable to open Deadpool and Wolverine in early May — the third installment was pushed back to late July — marking the first time in years that a Marvel superhero film didn't kick off the summer. This year, that job went to Universal's action-romance film The scapegoatthat did not meet expectations. Disney and 20th Century Kingdom of the Planet of the ApesComing out mid-month, it opened to good reception and successfully rebooted the franchise, but Memorial Day took a major hit when Warner Bros. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga I got a flat tire.
Sony's June Offer Bad Boys: Ride or Die set in motion a major reset and a two-month box office recovery that left “the sins of the past quickly disappearing into the rearview mirror,” says Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
The recovery started with a record-breaking performance by Inside Out 2that put Pixar back on the map and became the highest-grossing animated film of all time with over $1.667 billion in tickets sold globally as of September 2, including $651 million domestically. And it will soon surpass Jurassic World ranking as the eighth highest-grossing film of all time at the worldwide box office.
From there, the domestic summer box office took off in a big way. A slew of films of all shapes and sizes performed above expectations in North America, including Paramount's A Quiet Place: Day One ($139 million). July wins include Illumination and Universal Despicable Me 4 ($335.6 million), Amblin and Universal The tornadoes ($259.6 million) and the Marvel and Disney superhero sensation Deadpool and Wolverinethat, like Inside Out 2has broken numerous records and is the first title in the franchise to surpass $1 billion globally. Over Labor Day weekend, the Dead Pool threequel reached another milestone, surpassing the $600 million mark in the United States and ending the holiday weekend with a global gross of $1.262 billion.
“The flip side of the coin for theaters in the middle of the summer season has been surprising and a lesson in how unpredictable yet resilient this industry has always proven to be despite the Chicken Little-esque negative predictions that come every time there’s a box office downturn,” Dergarabedian says.
Adds Box Office Theory analyst Shawn Robbins: “The valleys have been more pronounced in recent years, and we continue to see shifts in consumer habits impact certain types of films. Overall, however, the second half of this profitable season, anchored by a variety of audience-pleasing blockbusters, has begun to deliver the kind of consistent box office winners this industry has been craving. That trend is set to continue into the fall, with a stronger run of post-summer releases than we've seen since before the pandemic.”
August releases included Wayfarer Studios It ends with uswhich reinforced Sony’s commitment to providing a female-facing offering. The film earned $135.8 million domestically and was unhindered by the social media storm sparked by an alleged rift between star-producer Blake Lively and star-director Justin Baldoni (Sony sided with Lively, whose preferred cut of the film is the one currently playing in theaters).
Another late summer boost was from 20th Century/Disney Alien: Romuluswhich earned $90.6 million domestically (its worldwide total is estimated at $293.5 million, the franchise's second-highest total, adjusted for inflation).
The indie side of the aisle also played a major role in the recovery, led by Neon Long legswhich grossed more than $74 million and is the highest-grossing independent horror film at the domestic box office in the last decade.
In terms of studios, Disney's film empire is back to its former glory days. Its summer films accounted for $1.5 billion of all domestic ticket sales, bringing its market share to about 42 percent. Universal also did well with three films in the top 10 of the summer domestic chart, followed by Paramount with two.
“Nearly every studio saw multiple summer releases exceed box office expectations across multiple ratings and genres for the remainder of the summer,” says Box Office Pro analyst Daniel Loria. “Disney takes the lead with Inside Out 2, Deadpool and Wolverine AND Alien: Romulus. Universal has found success with Despicable Me 4 AND The tornadoes. Paramount has seen great returns from A Quiet Place: Day One and recovered from a shaky opening weekend for IF to see that title reach $100 million and beyond. Sony ended the summer with hits like Bad Boys: Ride or Die which fell just under $200 million domestically and the late summer hit It ends with us.”
Loria continues: “Warner Bros. had a significantly more sober slate in 2024 than in Barbie summer 2023. Furious could have done better, even if the film Max Max was never a box office colossus. Horizon failed to find its audience theatrically, while genre substitutes such as Shyamalan-led thrillers The Observers AND Trap They had modest results without the weight of being major contributors to the study.”
Warner, however, has a big ace up its sleeve: Beetle Juice Beetle Juice which is headed for a summer opening next weekend. The sequel is tracking for an $80 million-plus domestic opening after receiving rave reviews and making a splashy world premiere at the Venice Film Festival.
At the same time, the box office isn't out of the woods yet, with year-to-date revenue down more than 14 percent from the same period last year. However, a slew of summer titles that have done better than expected is giving hope that bigger gains can be made this fall and winter.
“There's no doubt that the summer box office is riding on a higher note than it started,” Robbins says. “There's always an ebb and flow in this business.”