As awards season approaches, here are a dozen films that could win the top prize and how they might do it.
Published November 2, 2024
Anora, Conclave and 5 September
Courtesy of Neon; Philippe Antonello/Focus Features; Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures
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'Anora'
Image credit: Courtesy of Neon
What happens: An escort strikes a deal with an oligarch's son. Then the gangsters get involved.
Reason to believe: Three of the last four Palme d'Or winners have made best photographic cutting for Neon — and one has won (Parasite).
Reason to doubt: Are indie Baker and his whimsical visions too much for some voters? -
'Blitz'
Image credit: Parisa Taghizadeh/Apple TV+
What happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.
Reason to believe: Vintage credibility and past Oscar, dear Steve McQueen.
Reason to doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: World War movies these days tend to fall short. -
“The Brutalist”
Image credit: Courtesy of A24
What happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust travels to the United States to live an epic life.
Reason to believe: A broad vision that lasts more than three hours.
Reason to doubt: A broad vision that lasts more than three hours. -
“A Complete Stranger”
Image credit: Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
What happens: Bob Dylan plugs into Newport and everyone needs shelter from the storm.
Reason to believe: After zooming in with Ford-Ferrari, Mangold looks for the finish line. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an icon.
Reason to doubt: Does rock-folk tension seem consequential enough in 2024? -
'Conclave'
Image credit: Philippe Antonello/Focus Features
What happens: A pope dies and everyone wants the big job.
Reason to believe: Delightful fun in serious clothes.
Reason to doubt: Is it enough? Also, a divisive ending. -
“Dune: Part Two”
Image credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros.
What happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new syndicates and wages new wars.
Reason to believe: A franchise and director that has been building momentum for years.
Reason to doubt: The epics of distant planets and March releases are often forgotten. -
'Emilia Perez'
Image credit: PAGE 114/WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS/PATHÉ FILMS/FRANCE 2 CINÉMA/Netflix
What happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements.
Reason to believe: The pure audacity, the relevant current affairs.
Reason to doubt: Does the Never-Netflix voter still exist? -
“Gladiator II”
Image credit: Aidan Monaghan/Paramount Pictures
What happens: An adult Lucius returns to Rome to bring gladiatorial glory back to his people.
Reason to believe: Nostalgia… both for the Roman period and for the days of historical studio epics.
Reason to doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?” -
“The seed of the sacred fig”
Image credit: Courtesy of Neon
What happens: In repressive Iran, a family is torn apart by politics.
Reason to believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who fled Iran with his film.
Reason to doubt: The best film is often not suited to long-form foreign-language dramas set on the other side of the world. -
'5 September'
Image credit: Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures
What happens: One day in Munich, in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.
Reason to believe: Sorkin-style urgency on issues related to major media.
Reason to doubt: Global independents may struggle without as many crew members and directors as voters know. In addition to the difficult Israeli-Palestinian context. -
'Evil'
Image credit: Courtesy of Universal Pictures
What happens: The witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.
Reason to believe: It is Cats or it is Chicago?
Reason to doubt: It is Chicago or it is Cats? -
“The Wild Robot”
Image credit: Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation
What happens: Roz the robot lands on an animal island and learns to feel.
Reason to believe: A heartfelt and accessible film about artificial intelligence. Plus it's already a success.
Reason to doubt: Only three animated films were nominated; no one won.This story appears in the Oct. 30 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to sign up.