Who will win, who should win

Best Drama Series

WILL WIN Shogun

In a lean year (The crown It is the only repeat nomination), contenders include new shows (Fall, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, 3 Body problem) and returning (The morning show, The Golden Age, Slow horses). But the clear frontrunner, with 25 nominations, is an epic that was thought to be a limited series before becoming so successful that a second season was ordered. — SF

SHOULD WIN Shogun

The TV Academy needs to send FX a muffin basket for saving what would have been the weakest drama field since before the days of prestige cable. Even if FX finally decides that a second Shogun season is a bad idea — and it is — Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks's respectful, immaculate, and surprisingly well-acted adaptation of James Clavell's The Walking Dead is more than worthy of its Emmy. — DF

Best Actor in a Leading Role, Drama Series

WILL WIN Hiroyuki Sanada

A legend in Japan, ShogunHiroyuki Sanada was little known in the United States, certainly compared to his fellow nominees Idris Elba (To divert), Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith), Walton Goggins (Fall), Gary Oldman (Slow horses) and Dominic West (The crown) — before playing Lord Toranaga. But thanks to that performance, at 63 he is an international star and the undisputed favorite. — SF

SHOULD WIN Hiroyuki Sanada

Sometimes you could hear a complaint like “There aren't enough samurai fights!” directed at Shogun. Balderdash. Even just watching Sanada's Toranaga in deep contemplation was a first-rate feat. Sanada made a potentially imperious character unpredictable but calculating, full of human ambition but impossible to fully read. — DF

Best Actress in a Leading Role, Drama Series

WILL WIN Anna Sawai

Considering that the two actresses who played Queen Elizabeth II in The crown both have won this award, Imelda Staunton cannot be completely ruled out. But the gorgeous 32-year-old Japanese actress born in New Zealand who played ShogunLady Mariko seems very hard to beat, having already won the TCA Award for Outstanding Individual Achievement in a Drama out of all other male and female performers. — SF

SHOULD WIN Anna Sawai

Why is that second hypothetical Shogun season a bad idea? Because Anna Sawai's Mariko is the heart and soul of the first season, a character with complicated motivations and varied emotional richness, and it seems… unlikely she'll return. Bonus points to Sawai for also being the best part of Apple TV+ Monarch: Legacy of Monsters— DF

Best Comedy Series

WILL WIN The bear

The reigning champ, for its acclaimed second season, is set to win again, having earned 23 nominations, the most ever for a comedy. But its third season, which came out in June, has proven highly polarizing, which could redirect some support toward formidable competitors. Tricks, Abbott Elementary School, Only murders in the building AND Curb your enthusiasmall past candidates. — SF

SHOULD WIN Reserve Dogs

After two years of nearly total rejection of best comedy on television, voters finally took notice of Sterlin Harjo's Oklahoma-set triumph in the indigenous coming-of-age narrative. The final season included a wild '70s flashback, a supernatural look at generational trauma, a wacky escape from a mental hospital, and a gorgeous father-daughter duo. — DF

Best Lead Actor, Comedy Series

WILL WIN by Jeremy Allen White

It's certainly nice to see props for Only murders in the building veterans Steve Martin and Martin Short and FX stars Matt Berry (What we do in the shadows) and 22-year-old D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reserve Dogs). But you can take it to the kitchen: Voters will say “Yes, Chef” to The bearprotagonist for the second consecutive ceremony. — SF

SHOULD WIN Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai

If I could give an Emmy to one of the Reserve Dogs together, it would be to Devery Jacobs — for writing, directing AND acting — but in return, Woon-A-Tai had a really impressive season, especially in “Maximus,” which he shared with the great Graham Greene. No offense to White, but Woon-A-Tai or Berry would be more interesting. — DF

Best Lead Actress, Comedy Series

WILL WIN Smart Jean

This is between TricksJean Smart, who won both previous seasons of her show; Abbott Elementary SchoolQuinta Brunson, who won last year when Smart was ineligible; and The bearAyo Edebiri, who won best supporting actress in a comedy last year, is up for lead this season. Smart beat out Brunson, but Edebiri has never competed against either of them. Edge to the veteran. — SF

SHOULD WIN Smart Jean

Smart has reached the Candice Bergen/Julia Louis-Dreyfus stage where it’s pathologically boring to keep giving her Emmys, but she’s so good in so many different ways that you can’t fault her. Deborah Vance’s dark turn in the season finale, desperately clinging to the dream she thought had slipped away, was played beautifully. — DF

Best Limited Series/Anthology

WILL WIN Baby Reindeer

from HBO True Detective and the special effects Fargo are anthology series vying for the fifth and fourth installments; the former has earned a total of 19 nominations, the best in the industry, while the latter won this award for its debut in 2014. And Netflix has two limited titles in the running: the artistic Ripley and the personal and provocative Baby Reindeerwhich, like other recent winners, has stimulated cultural dialogue. — SF

SHOULD WIN Ripley

Steven Zaillian answered the worthy question “Do we need a new Ripley take?” with a grim, suspenseful, sometimes hilarious eight-episode miniseries. Andrew Scott has put his own spin on this mature, less preternaturally talented version of the character, and Robert Elswit’s breathtaking black-and-white cinematography is an Emmy surefire winner. — DF

Best Actor in a Leading Role, Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Richard Gadd

Richard Gadd, a comedian with little acting experience, wrote Baby Reindeer drawing on his own experiences, and then decided to play himself, which could have gone very badly. Other candidates' performances could be more emotional — Ripleyby Andrew Scott, FargoJon Hamm and Feud: Capote vs. Swans' Tom Hollander — but no more creepy. — SF

SHOULD WIN Richard Gadd

This is a great category, with Hamm wearing nipple rings, Matt Bomer as a Red Scare version of Don Draper, and Hollander and Scott putting their stamp on characters they've played indelibly many times before. But for all the aspects of Baby Reindeer that came out of nowhere, the semi-autobiographical open wound of a Gadd performance was the most revealing. — DF

Best Actress in a Leading Role, Limited/Anthology Series

WILL WIN Jodie Foster

Jodie Foster is one of the most revered actresses in the world, but she has never won an Emmy, and voters will be hard-pressed to deny her a turn in the final True Detective. If a reversal were to occur, it could come from fellow Oscar winner Brie Larson (Chemistry lessons) or, for her first dramatic role, Sofía Vergara (Griselda). —SF

SHOULD WIN Temple of Juno

Both Foster and Larson put their star power into embodying unabashedly prickly characters, but I love how Juno Temple starts off with what feels like a cartoon: the last Fargo incarnation of the gentle Minnesota — and finds the trauma and the sweetness and the fierce toughness of (Dot) Lyon. She's especially good in the finale with the snubbed Sam Spruell. — DF

This story originally appeared in the September 11 issue of The Hollywood Reporter. Click here to subscribe.